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Asian banking is on the cusp of a WhatsApp moment.

Source: Bloomberg, July 4, 2016 By Andy Mukherjee

 

Remember paying an arm and a leg for text messages? Now all the telcos in the world combined can't match WhatsApp's 30 billion pings a day. Financial transactions will go the same way, and Asia may lead the trend, rather than following it a decade later.

PEOPLE WITHOUT BANK ACCOUNTS, WORLDWIDE

 

For the WhatsApp analogy, a hat tip to Nandan Nilekani, a successful Indian technology entrepreneur who later helped New Delhi set up online biometric IDs for 1 billion people. Nilekani is perhaps best known for giving the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman the idea that the world was flat. On banking, Nilekani is really on to something.

Banks in the Asia-Pacific region, responsible for 46 percent of the global industry's $1 trillion in profit last year, should brace themselves for a storm, says McKinsey. About $400 billion of their revenue will be at risk by 2025, the consulting firm estimates. A small part of that may be from the direct loss of market share to fintech startups. Most of it, however, will be a consequence of the price erosion that will result from banks trying to protect their turf. Tremors will be felt everywhere from consumer finance and payments to SME lending and wealth management.

The Big Squeeze

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There's a compelling reason for Asia to lead this shakeup. The region is home to 55 percent of the 2 billion people worldwide who don't have bank accounts. More than one-third of them are in India, China and Indonesia. Governments have a strong incentive to let their underbanked populations use newly acquired smartphones to bypass branches, plastic cards and even desktop internet banking. 

There's a lot of growth at stake. Take small and medium-sized enterprises. In China in 2009, they accounted for 40 percent of bank loans. That number now is 47 percent, exceeding loans to large businesses. Yet demand continues to exceed supply.

FALLING LIKE A STONE

fintech falling

Given that 37 million small businesses buy and sell goods on Alibaba's websites, its offshoot Ant Financial, China's most valuable fintech firm, is arguably in a better position to satisfy SMEs' hunger for credit than any bank. And nothing stops Jack Ma from replicating that model in India, where Ant's Alipay has a stake in the country's top mobile-payments firm, Paytm. A survey by McKinsey found 43 percent of SMEs in India borrowing from informal sources, partly because they had exhausted both collateral and working-capital lines.

Credit Suisse estimates that India's retail loan assets, including SME credit, will grow to $3 trillion by 2026, five times the size of the market now. Now that any app in the country can push and pull money in and out of any bank account using a unified payment interface, lenders have lost their power to authorize transactions.

Expect this to become the blueprint for the region. Cornered in consumer lending, banks may beat a retreat to large corporate customers. The better borrowers in that group, though, have the global bond market to tap. So in the end, Asia's lenders may be left with the worst of both the worlds.

Wireless subscribers felt avenged when their overcharging telco providers were clobbered by startups. Given just how popular banks are, savers and borrowers are unlikely to shed a tear when the lenders' WhatsApp moment arrives.

 

 

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Pushing for FinTech accelerated development in Vietnam and Asean

 

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Financial transactions are done up to recently mostly through the intermediary of financial institutions (banks, insurance companies, stock brokers).
Even in countries where there are stringent regulations on antitrust and customer protection, with the key instruments at their control (ie. rules of the game’s setting, funding with central bank, risk management…) , the financial institutions keep the upper hand in the relationship with customers.

Such a situation may not last longer now with the larger use of internet and smartphones and the development of financial technology (“FinTech”) using software. Effectively, an increasing number of financial services are now open to new players either:
- as part of the financial service process (eg. advisory on best offers, use of big data analytics and predictive modeling)
- as new financial service provider (Peer-to-peer lending & investments, crowdfunding, private insurance…)

Such new services which can be quite similar across national borders and so can be sold internationally. The most successful and popular are the ones that are the more disrupting, the most simple to process, the lower cost thanks to to the suppression of traditional intermediaries. FinTech services are however still today in the early stage in most countries. There is thus a window of opportunities that is open for any country willing to take part and build its own position in the global financial services market. This will also contribute to make the financial services industry more competitive and so with easier credit access and lower costs particularly for the SMEs.

Like Singapore, Malaysia , Thailand in the region, Vietnam should push and accelerate its development of FinTech industry and the corresponding ecosystems (regulations, customer protection, intellectual property, startup funding, incubators), leveraging particularly on the country’s strong position on information technology and the population’s high entrepreneurial motivation and the now Asean important market.

ATTP Capital is ready to accompany your business in this FinTech development either through our involvement during the startup process or direct investment in your capital funding.

 

 

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